The United States, China and Taiwan: Reunification, Reconciliation or War?
Abstract
This Strategy Research Project addresses the historical and anticipated relationships between the United States (U.S.), the Peoples Republic of China (PRO) and Taiwan from 1949 until 2020. The primary question this project will attempt to answer is whether the three countries will be able to achieve a peaceful resolution to ongoing tensions over the Taiwan Straits. Of particular concern is the projected increase in PRC military capabilities and the PRC's desire for regional hegemony. By examining in detail the history, current interdependencies and projected evolution of diplomatic, military, and economic developments between the three actors, this paper will identify and present pressure points and offer alternative strategies to national decision makers. While the PRC'S will strive to establish the military capability to forcibly reunite Taiwan within the next fifteen years, it is not likely to pursue such a drastic course of action because of the long term negative effects to its national development. China and Taiwan will most likely achieve peaceful reunification only if China undergoes significant democratic reforms and dramatically increases its per capita Gross Domestic Product. Although China will continue to pursue regional hegemony in North East Asia, war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan is not inevitable because of the interdependencies caused by the global economy.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 07, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA414588
Entities
People
- Stephen G. Fogarty
Organizations
- United States Army War College