Social Systems Analysis: The Future of Operational Intelligence?
Abstract
Does social systems analysis provide the Joint Force Commander (JFC) with an advantage over a potential adversary? Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) believes the answer is "yes" by virtue of experiments and concept development work, including that accomplished in MILLENIUM CHALLENGE 2002. They assert that adding this type of analysis to more traditional forms of intelligence products (e.g., Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace) provides the JFC with more options for employing lethal and nonlethal forms of national power. Academics and complex adaptive systems experts are not as hopeful. They cite the inherent unpredictability of human-centered activities, whether they are at the individual or group level. While the idea of incorporating social systems analysis in the JFC's intelligence toolkit is appealing, it has significant risks. Systems dynamics experts believe social theory is too imprecise and subjective to provide a sound foundation for systems analysis. Moreover, social systems analysis often blends theories, assumptions, and facts. This results in knowledge bases and representative analytical models that appear valid, but may not account for either unknowable facts (e.g., human perceptions) or extemporaneous factors known only by the adversary. The result may be a false sense of security in the validity of intelligence assessments that are based on social systems analysis. The critical patterns and trends that underlie adversary systems can be modeled. The challenge is to segregate subjective analysis from facts. A well-designed model that does so may provide the JFC with the ability to visualize the otherwise abstract idea of effects-based operations. (14 refs.)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 15, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA417225
Entities
People
- Van Garraghty
Organizations
- Naval War College