How to Optimally Interdict a Belligerent Project to Develop a Nuclear Weapon
Abstract
Despite decades of energetic international control efforts, nuclear weapons technology continues to spread worldwide. To understand how these complex weapons programs can be developed, we assume the role of a nation seeking to build a first fission weapon, and the ability to continue to build more We introduce a large-scale project management model that includes alternate development paths to achieve certain key technical milestones We show how such a project can be optimally accelerated by expediting critical tasks, Next, we present a new analysis tool to detect vulnerabilities in such a development program: we seek optimal actions to impede, set back and/or otherwise frustrate completion of a first weapon, even if the proliferation knows what we are doing to delay things, This two-sided project evaluation tool is implemented with a combination of off-the-shelf project management software, optimization software and custom code, An illustrative case study of a first fission weapon program shows how this new analysis tool can be used, Our methods also apply to chemical, biological and/or radiological dispersion weapons, as well as to more conventional strategic industrial and commercial activities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2004
- Accession Number
- ADA422344
Entities
People
- Eric M. Skroch
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School