Estimating Cost Growth in Engineering and Schedule Cost Catergories Using a Two-Pronged Regression Approach

Abstract

This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study focuses on the engineering and schedule SAR cost variance categories within the procurement appropriations. We study each of these categories individually for significant cost growth characteristics and develop predictive models for each. We discover the two-step logistic and multiple regression approach produces desirable results.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2004
Accession Number
ADA422912

Entities

People

  • Chris J. Mcdaniel

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Electronic Warfare
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Computer Programs
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Engineering
  • Financial Management
  • Information Science
  • National Security
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Procurement
  • Risk Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation
  • War Colleges
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.