A Projection of Moore's Law and Recommended Approaches to Manage and Mitigate Risks
Abstract
Moore's Law: The number of transistors that can be placed on a micro-circuit doubles every 18-24 months, resulting in a rapid turnover in generations of microcircuits. There are almost as many opinions about how long Moore's Law will be applicable as there have been technological advances since the Law was first annunciated in 1965. The majority of industry experts however believe that the physical limits of silicon based advancements will be reached by the end of the decade. Microelectronics obsolescence will remain a challenge as industry and academia alike are hard at work on marketing post-silicon applications. New atomic compounds such as gallenium arsenide and ferritin may replace silicon substrates within integrated circuits while entirely new technologies like quantum computing may transform the entire industry. The point is that while Moore's Law will end relatively soon innovation will not--and DoD program managers (PM) will still have to manage obsolescence.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA423400
Entities
People
- Greg Burns
- William C. Marks
Organizations
- Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy