The Role of Civil Defense - 1986
Abstract
The technology of protecting people from nuclear weapons is well-developed and is being deployed by several countries including Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Soviet Union, and China. However, the United States, where most of the technology originated, has so far refused to make the investment necessary to provide significant passive protection for its citizens. Instead it has relied entirely on nuclear deterrence to prevent attack. The proposed Stategic Defense Initiative has reopened the debate on strategic defense. The U.S. has several options for civil defense programs but the low-cost programs require several days warning for evacuation. A competent program protecting people in blast areas with only tactical warning would be cost effective at the margin with respect to offensive forces but would still cost 1% of the annual defense budget for 20 years. The fate of Reagan's attempt to expand the civil defense program suggests that this level of expenditure for passive defense is not politically feasible in the present climate. Most knowledgeable observers believe that any active defense will leak, and that a passive defense underlayer will be required to reduce casualties from the leakage. It is possible that a decision to deploy active defense costing hundreds of billions of dollars (over 20 years) will make possible the expenditure of tens of billions of dollars for passive defense. It is suggested here that a U.S. civil defense program will not make arms control more difficult. Most likely it will have little effect. It may provide some hedge against cheating, and make the corresponding risks in arms control agreements politically more acceptable.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- ADA425577
Entities
People
- Conrad V. Chester
Organizations
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory