Modeling the Departure of Military Pilots From the Services

Abstract

High numbers of voluntary departures from the services by military pilots have periodically caused considerable concern among military administrators and policymakers, both recently and in previous periods of high attrition. In this study, we explore some determinants of the fixed-wing (airplane) pilot attrition problem among male pilots in the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps and the responsiveness of attrition to changes in military compensation. We estimated a pilot attrition model that examines the impact on attrition from factors such as compensation, deployment, voluntary separation programs, and civilian airline hiring. Data sources include military personnel files and information on civilian airline hiring and compensation. The model is simplified in order to abstract from complex modeling issues, such as the existence of multiple decision points and bonus contracts of differing lengths. We focus on voluntary attrition within a few years of the end of the initial service obligation. Although we were able to verify the insensitivity of our results to a number of specification and sample checks, our results do depend on a number of simplifying assumptions that may not be fully testable. Results from the pilot attrition model should therefore be interpreted in light of these assumptions.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2004
Accession Number
ADA426410

Entities

People

  • Carole R. Gresenz
  • Kanika Kapur
  • Marc N. Elliott

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Attrition
  • Business Administration
  • Civilian Pilots
  • Commercial Aviation
  • Commercial Pilots
  • Employment
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Families (Human)
  • Flight Training
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Aircraft
  • Military Pilots
  • Minority Groups
  • Officer Personnel
  • Personnel Management
  • Personnel Retention

Readers

  • Aviation Safety and Air Traffic Management
  • Calculus or Mathematical Analysis
  • Naval Personnel Management