The Middle East in 2015: The Impact of Regional Trends in U.S. Strategic Planning
Abstract
This volume was begun in 1999, when the National Intelligence Council asked the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University to examine change in the Middle East. At that time, little political change had occurred in the region in 30 years. In fact, the governments of the Middle East had shown a remarkable stability. Except for the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran and a military coup in Sudan in 1989, the region had been stable. Most rulers had been in place for a generation Syrian President Hafiz al-Asad since 1971, the Iraqi Ba'thists and Saddam Husayn since 1968, Jordanian King Hussein since 1952, Moroccan King Hassan since 1961, Omani Sultan Qaboos since 1970, and Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi since 1969. The same families have ruled Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states for much of the 20th century. Iran, the only country in the region to undergo a revolution in the past 25 years, passed power to new leaders through elections. Assassinations in Egypt and Israel brought in new leaders but did not change the basic political structure in those countries. With the exceptions of Qatar, Iran, Sudan, and Algeria, transfers of power were orderly and preordained by elections (in Israel) or family, tribal, or party consensus. At the same time, the economies of the countries including the oil-rich Persian Gulf states have remained stagnant, and an unchanging trend in demographics rapidly increasing populations, lowered mortality rates, growing unemployment, and insufficient job creation seems poised to threaten stability. The spread of weapons of mass destruction, new security alliances, drugs, terrorism, and the increasing popularity of religiously defined activist movements, both Islamic and Jewish, raise questions about future challenges to internal and external regime security.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA427058
Entities
People
- Judith S. Yaphe
Organizations
- National Defense University