A Social Structure Model for Evaluating the Effect of Response Measures on the Spread of Smallpox
Abstract
Homogeneous mixing, where all instances of contacts between any two members of the population are equally likely, is a common assumption in modeling biodefense policies against smallpox. Such a mixing pattern is rather unlikely to represent population interaction in a modern urban setting, which typically is separated into households on one hand, and into daily meeting sites such as schools and offices, on the other hand. In this paper, we develop a dynamic two-level social interaction model where individuals move back and forth between home and daily meeting sites, possibly passing through a general meeting site such as a mass transit system or other crowded areas. Based on this difference-equations model, we evaluate the effect of situational awareness and response measures, such as vaccination, quarantining, and movement restrictions, on the spread of smallpox in the population.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2004
- Accession Number
- ADA428389
Entities
People
- Moshe Kress
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School