International Game '99: Crisis in South Asia, 28-30 January 1999
Abstract
The primary purpose of this game was to explore international approaches for dealing with crises involving the threat and use of nuclear weapons. To do so, the game engaged mid- to high-level participants from 15 countries in a United Nations (UN) Security Council setting. The scenario examined tensions between India and Pakistan. A number of observations emerging from game play are presented. International organizations are likely to be ineffective in addressing a nuclear crisis in South Asia, primarily because their deliberations take too long. However, a forum like the UN will still be required for the conduct of critical multilateral negotiations, whether or not the organization itself gets involved in intervention. For the foreseeable future, "managed tension" will remain the norm between India and Pakistan. Historic ties shape the perceptions and actions of belligerents as well as those responding to a crisis. Conventional force confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan need to be complemented by nuclear Continental Ballistic Missiles (CBMs). Nuclear weapons provide states with enhanced negotiating leverage, and also provide them with a wild card that they would not otherwise possess. Conflicting views concerning the importance of nuclear weapons will continue. India, in particular, sees possession of nuclear weapons as the key to great power status. Post-nuclear exchange options are extremely limited. Participants agreed that accident and miscalculation are the most likely triggers that could result in a nuclear exchange on the subcontinent. Resort to tactical nuclear weapons is especially likely if a country perceives that its sovereignty is seriously threatened. Participants also asserted that if the international community fails to resolve serious cross-border tensions, and only attempts, on the brink of conflict, to search for solutions, it must bear some responsibility for the suffering that results.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1999
- Accession Number
- ADA430698
Entities
People
- Bradd C. Hayes
Organizations
- Naval War College