Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?
Abstract
Since the mid-1970s each administration has been surprised by a major unanticipated strategic crisis: Carter in Iran; Reagan in Central America; Bush in the Persian Gulf; Clinton in the Balkans and Africa; and the current Bush administration with the global war on terrorism (GWOT). Cuba, specifically post-Castro Cuba, could very well trigger the next unanticipated crisis even though the writing is on the wall. Fidel Castro is 78 years old, the current life expectancy of a Cuban male. When Castro dies, it is questionable whether his designated successor can hold power so anarchy is a real possibility. The Cuban infrastructure and economy may implode with or without Castro. A power struggle in Cuba would have potentially significant effects on the Central and South American regions, requiring the U.S. to divert attention and resources from the GWOT to the region. Unfortunately, the U.S. does not have an appropriate policy approach to address such an obvious crisis. When the end of Castro's rule comes, the U.S. will likely take a "wait and see what happens" approach, and then respond as necessary to the crisis. What is needed is a policy that would promote a favorable post-Castro transition, thereby averting a Cuban and regional crisis. Such a proactive policy is fully consistent with the pre-emptive approach of the National Security Strategy. The U.S., the region, and the rest of the world would benefit from such a visionary policy.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 18, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA433074
Entities
People
- Tim Gorrell
Organizations
- United States Army War College