Bayes, Bugs, and Bioterrorists: Lessons Learned from the Anthrax Attacks

Abstract

The U.S. government continues to improve its plans for protecting civilians and soldiers from attacks with biological weapons. Part of this effort focuses on developing strategies that recognize the difficult choices to be made in using and deploying resources. This paper presents a risk- and decision-based framework derived from the field of Bayesian statistics for developing strategies that facilitate managing the risks of biological agents. The framework recognizes the significantly different attributes of potential biological weapons and offers a strategy for improving communication to effectively coordinate national biopreparedness efforts. The framework identifies generic decisions related to routine immunization, response planning, stockpiling vaccines and therapeutic agents, surveillance choices, containment, emergency response training, research, media and communications preparations, information management, and policy development. This paper provides a straw man to be used in wargames, exercises, practices, etc., at all levels of government. Given the attention on anthrax following the 2001 attacks, this paper applies the framework to managing the risks of anthrax to provide an illustrative example. The example demonstrates that by organizing information at this level, decisionmakers can quickly understand the critical connections between different options (e.g., vaccinating with a new vaccine requires an investment in research; research might increase the opportunities for breaches of containment). With respect to managing the risks of an attack with anthrax, this analysis suggests the need for creation of a comprehensive national management plan that includes quantitative evaluation of resource investments. The authors conclude that the government should adopt a process-based on decision science and using the power of decision trees as an analytical tool-to develop a strategy for managing the risks of bioterrorism.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA435051

Entities

People

  • Donald F. Thompson
  • Kimberly M. Thompson
  • Robert E. Armstrong

Organizations

  • National Defense University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Anti-Bacterial Agents
  • Bacteria
  • Bacterial Infections
  • Biological Factors
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Equine Encephalitis
  • Health Services
  • Lessons Learned
  • Medical Personnel
  • Microbiology
  • National Security
  • Personnel Management
  • Public Health
  • Risk Analysis
  • Viruses

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy
  • Biotechnology