Israel's Attack on Osiraq: A Model for Future Preventive Strikes?
Abstract
This is the 59th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Twenty-four years ago, Israeli fighter pilots destroyed the Osiraq nuclear reactor and made a profound statement about global nuclear proliferation. In light of the recent preventive regime change in Iraq, a review of this strike reveals timely lessons for future counterproliferation actions. Using old, new, and primary source evidence, this paper examines Osiraq for lessons from a preventive attack on a nonconventional target. Before attacking Osiraq, Israeli policy makers attempted diplomatic coercion to delay Iraq's nuclear development. Concurrent with diplomatic actions, Israeli planners developed a state-of-the-art military plan to destroy Osiraq. Finally, Israeli leaders weathered the international storm after the strike. The paper examines Israeli decision making for each of these phases. The paper draws two conclusions. First, preventive strikes are valuable primarily for two purposes: buying time and gaining international attention. Second, the strike provided a one-time benefit for Israel. Subsequent strikes will be less effective due to dispersed/hardened nuclear targets and limited intelligence. The author presents the raid in both strategic and operational detail, directly addressing its wider applicability as a model for contemporary military action. He reviews the operational details of mission planning and execution as seen through a pilot's eyes, but he also reviews the larger context of Israeli decisions and actions from both the domestic and international perspectives. Upon that history, he overlays a policy template to draw broader lessons and cautions for those contemplating preventive strikes in other contexts. The conclusion that they can, at best, buy time for other policy tools and efforts should not be lost on security planners today.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA435416
Entities
People
- Peter S. Ford
Organizations
- United States Air Force Academy