A Time Series Analysis of U.S. Army Officer Loss Rates

Abstract

Accurate prediction of officer loss behavior is essential for the planning of personnel policies and executing the U.S. Army's Officer Personnel Management System (OPMS). Inaccurate predictions of officer strength affect the number of personnel authorizations, the Army's budget, and the necessary number of accessions. Imbalances of officer strength in the basic branches affect the Army's combat readiness as a whole. Captains and majors comprise a critical management population in the United States Army's officer corps. This thesis analyzes U.S. Army officer loss rates for captains and majors and evaluates the fit of several time series models. The results from this thesis validate the time series forecasting technique currently used by the Army G-1, Winters-method additive.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA435582

Entities

People

  • Steven J. Sparling

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Active Duty
  • Additives (Chemicals)
  • Army Personnel
  • Attrition
  • Combat Readiness
  • Databases
  • Information Science
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Personnel
  • Military Police
  • Officer Personnel
  • Personnel Management
  • Regression Analysis
  • Test Sets
  • Time Series Analysis
  • United States
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military Leadership and Professional Education.
  • Military Mobilization and Reserve Forces Studies.