Simulation to Determine the Impact of Life-Cycle Manning on Lieutenants

Abstract

The U.S. Army has proposed a new manning strategy to reduce personnel turbulence and build strong cohesive combat units. Life-cycle manning would synchronize officer assignment with the 3-year life cycle of a Unit of Action (UA). This thesis uses simulation to examine the length of time an officer waits between graduation from the Basic Officer Leadership Course (BOLC) and assignment to a UA. The model is a discrete-event simulation based on a Java library called Simkit. This is a terminating simulation that provides the average delay lieutenants experience before unit assignment, over a 10-year period. The thesis uses robust design to evaluate both the mean performance and the variability of the system. By minimizing a quadratic loss function, optimal settings are determined that trade off some expected delay to achieve greater consistency. The analysis reveals that this system behaves like a queueing model in which officer accessions influence the arrival rate and the number of life-cycle units and their fill rates influence the service rates. Reducing officer accessions and the length of the life cycles while increasing the unit strength will keep the system stable and the expected delays smaller with greater consistency.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA435903

Entities

People

  • William I. Lewis Jr

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artillery
  • Attrition
  • Consistency
  • Experimental Design
  • Leadership
  • Life Cycles
  • Mathematical Models
  • Models
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Simulations
  • Students
  • Training
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Engineering

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Military Leadership and Professional Education.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy