Dynamical Epidemic Suppression Using Stochastic Prediction and Control

Abstract

We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control scheme that prevents large outbreaks from occurring. The theory is applicable to a wide range of stochastic processes with underlying deterministic structure.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 28, 2004
Accession Number
ADA436522

Entities

People

  • Erik M. Bollt
  • Ira B. Schwartz
  • Lora Billings

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Autonomy
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Computer Science
  • Data Analysis
  • Differential Equations
  • Diseases And Disorders
  • Equations
  • Frequency
  • Generators
  • Military Research
  • Modulation
  • New York
  • Noise
  • Numerical Analysis
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Two Dimensional

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science / Meteorology, specifically Wind Wave Turbulence.
  • Infectious Disease/Epidemiology
  • Statistical inference.