National Crisis Management and Technology
Abstract
Research relevant to the forecasting of intranational and international security crises has proceeded in four significant areas. First, basic research regarding the sources and decision-making process of crises has proliferated since the early 1960s. Second, interdisciplinary research regarding the development and use of quantitative variables and indicators also has progressed rapidly in the last decade. Third, during this same period, the art of forecasting has convincingly evolved into a credible science. Finally, the development of computerized techniques for the storage, retrieval, processing, and display of data has dramatically improved. However, there have been very few attempts to integrate these areas into a coherent concept that would allow the development, test, and implementation of a national crisis warning and management system. To develop a national crisis warning system, a number of steps must be taken. First, the number and nature of useful quantitative indicators for crisis warning must be established. Indicators of U.S. national interests also should be identified and examined. Most importantly, ranked regional and country-by-country lists of U.S. national interests should be generated and used in conjunction with indicators for crisis warning. The range of useful forecasting methods also should be determined. Methods within such a range should be tested, compared, and ranked according to their forecasting potency. Finally, all of these steps should lead to the design, construction, and installation of a user-oriented crisis warning system.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA436596
Entities
People
- Charles L. Austin
Organizations
- National War College