Inferring Rule-Based Strategies in Dynamic Judgment Tasks: Towards a Noncompensatory Formulation of the Lens Model
Abstract
Performers in time-stressed, information-rich tasks develop rule-based, simplification strategies to cope with the severe cognitive demands imposed by judgment and decision making. Linear regression modeling, proven useful for describing judgment in a wide range of static tasks, may provide misleading accounts of these heuristics. That approach assumes cue-weighting and cue-integration are well described by compensatory strategies. In contrast, evidence suggests that heuristic strategies in dynamic tasks may instead reflect rule-based, noncompensatory cue usage. We therefore present a technique, called Genetics-Based Policy Capturing (GBPC), for inferring noncompensatory, rule-based heuristics from judgment data, as an alternative to regression. In GBPC, rule-base representation and search uses a genetic algorithm, and fitting the model to data uses multi-objective optimization to maximize fit on three dimensions: a) completeness (all human judgments are represented); b) specificity (maximal concreteness); and c) parsimony (no unnecessary rules are used). GBPC is illustrated using data from the highest and lowest scoring participants in a simulated dynamic, combat information center (CIC) task. GBPC inferred rule-bases for these two performers that shed light on both skill and error. We compare the GBPC results with regression-based Lens Modeling of the same data set, and discuss how the GBPC results allowed us to interpret the high scoring performer's highly significant use of unmodeled knowledge (C=1) revealed by Lens Model analysis. The GBPC findings also allow us to now interpret a similarly high use of unmodeled knowledge (C=1) in a previously published Lens Model analysis of a different data set collected in the same experimental task.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA436779
Entities
People
- Alex Kirlik
- Ling Rothrock
Organizations
- University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign