The Next Energy Crisis: U.S. National Security Vulnerability in the 1990s
Abstract
Although oil prices today are relatively low and supplies are plentiful, the fact remains that the United States is now over 50% dependent on foreign sources for a resource that is vital to the U.S. economy and national security. The availability of cheap foreign oil has undermined the goal of energy independence and seriously eroded the margin of energy security. Despite growing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, there is no consensus in the nation that energy security is a critical problem. Many analysts argue the situation has changed radically from the 1970s because U.S. imports are more diversified, there are greater supplies available outside of OPEC and the Middle East, and there is considerable excess supply capacity. These analysts believe this situation will continue into the foreseeable future with no supply problems. Other analysts predict that by the mid-1990s, conditions will be ripe for another oil crisis because world supply and demand will be in near equilibrium and a crisis in the Persian Gulf could seriously upset the supply side and send prices soaring again. Optimistic views tend to focus primarily on the supply aspects while pessimistic views focus more on the price aspects. Both supply and price are important. Energy security is not just adequate and uninterrupted supplies but also supplies at reasonable prices. Regardless of whether one accepts the optimistic or the pessimistic view, the availability of oil is still a vital U.S. national security interest. Given the long lead times required to develop and implement alternate fuel technologies, the United States must be prepared to meet all possible contingencies that could affect the supply of oil at reasonable prices. A critical analysis of the issue requires an examination of the oil market, the potential threats to supply, the foreign policy instruments required to deal with any threat, and the international and domestic actions needed to provide an adequate margin of energy security.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 15, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA436973
Entities
People
- Derek K. Craig
Organizations
- National War College