Developing an Interim Strategy and Force Structure in the Face of Change and Uncertainty
Abstract
The times are out of joint and likely to become even more so. The velocity and impacts of worldwide change mock our attempts to keep up with events, much less extract "essential truths" to serve as the bedrock for new national policies and supporting military strategies. So profound and open-ended is the continuing upheaval that a healthy uncertainty appears to be the only appropriate outlook in developing an interim strategy and force structure to serve until we can project the direction of events with more confidence. Five Year Defense Plans (FYDP) implement force structures. These plans involve huge resource commitments to raise, train, and maintain forces to design, test, procure, and maintain the equipment and supplies for their support and use. What kind of basis does change and uncertainty offer for doing that? The answer is that accepting uncertainty as the norm is the only answer that makes any sense right now. If we can identify the currents of major change (if not their outcomes), and then assess the extent of our uncertainties (and associated risks), then we should be able to build an interim strategy (or strategies) and supporting force structure which attempts to accommodate multiple threats at an acceptable level of risk within our expected means. Some refuse to accept uncertainty as a legitimate condition under which to fashion strategies and structures. If that perspective is valid then presumably we can somehow substitute certainty for uncertainty. But how? Can we be sure of
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 02, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA437369
Entities
People
- Anthony A. Wood
Organizations
- National War College