Financing Terror: Analysis and Simulation to Affect Terrorist Organizations' Financial Infrastructures
Abstract
This dissertation examines modern terrorist financing and counter-finance policies through an in-depth narrative as well as computer simulation. The background of terrorist financing is developed through three case studies, examining the methods and functions of financial systems by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA), and the Tamil Tigers of Elam (LTTE). With that background, an in-depth case study of al Qaeda and its affiliates' financial infrastructures is conducted, noting key similarities, differences and developments between its fiscal operations and those of other terrorist groups. That case study is used to inform a computer simulation regarding al Qaeda's ability to collect and use money for terrorist operations. The simulation finds that completely stopping the flow of money to terrorist organizations in impossible. Furthermore, it finds that in the short term, the most effective policy at decreasing terrorist funding is to attack a terrorist group's capacity to collect funds-arresting financiers, shutting down front or shell businesses and closing false charities are examples. In the long term, undermining the appeal of al Qaeda's ideology is key to reducing terror money supply. Passing better laws, better enforcement of those laws and increasing law enforcement presence are moderately effectively policies, while increasing the length or severity of punishment for financing terror was found to be the least effective. The dissertation concludes with a list of policy recommendations, including better integrating counter-finance policies within the broader counter-terrorism strategy, defining clear short- and long-term goals regarding terror money, finding and exploiting secondary and tertiary effects of targeting terrorists' finances, and viewing terrorist finances as a source of intelligence as well as a target to be attacked.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 15, 2004
- Accession Number
- ADA438830
Entities
People
- Kiser D. Stephhen
Organizations
- RAND Corporation