Optimizing the Long-Term Capacity Expansion and Protection of Iraqi Oil Infrastructure
Abstract
This thesis introduces a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that redirects flow in response to insurgent damage. The author uses open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. He solves this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, he determines the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA439532
Entities
People
- Patrick S. Brown
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School