Pre-Conflict Anticipation and Shaping (PCAS): Models-2-Shaping Integration
Abstract
The project investigated techniques of computational support for devising shaping strategies and 'fusing', or jointly using, multiple different models representing relevant information and knowledge. A demonstration problem involving actions the US might take regarding Pakistan's Northwestern Territories and utilizing an assembled suite of models was developed. The models were placed in Evolving Logic's Computer Assisted Reasoning system (CARs) software environment and provided the basis for compound computational experiments to demonstrate that the use of multiple models (both alternative model variants, and complementary models of different type) can provide more insight and better decisions than any one model could and that the suite of models together with the technology can provide a basis for devising shaping strategies. The analytical outcome suggests that a useful definition of a shaping strategy is one involving near-term actions that are robust to the uncertainties and satisfies a series of goals, in both the short and long term.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA439553
Entities
People
- Robert J. Lempert
- Steven Bankes
- Steven W. Popper