Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis
Abstract
Over the past decade, the authors and their colleagues have done considerable theoretical and applied work involving multiresolution, multiperspective modeling (MRMPM) and exploratory analysis, in part to connect the worlds of strategic planning (e.g., development of the defense guidance and defense programs) with the world of more-detailed analysis and experimentation for transformation of military forces, weapon systems, and doctrine. They also have used MRMPM to model adversaries within studies of deterrence and compellence. Many implications for model validation have emerged as byproducts. The authors' objectives in this monograph are to examine those implications and to convince readers of their practical importance. Three themes run through this monograph: (1) the importance to validation of developing and exploiting multiresolution, multiperspective families of models; (2) the importance of having models and model-based analyses that are comprehensible and explainable; and (3) the importance of being able to deal with uncertainty. The monograph proceeds as follows: Chapter 2 explains why working at multiple levels of resolution and using exploratory analysis is important to model validation. It also suggests a broadened concept of validation. Chapter 3 discusses what it means to maintain consistency across levels of resolution, which is closely related to model validation. Chapter 4 discusses the importance of having a low-resolution model (perhaps a metamodel) that provides a credible and insightful explanation (i.e., a story or theory about causal relationships). It also suggests that the form of metamodels should be "motivated" by drawing upon knowledge of the subject area to assure that such a story is built in. Such considerations are crucial if models are to have face validity. Appendices provide concrete examples to illustrate points made in the main text.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA439815
Entities
People
- James H. Bigelow
- Paul K. Davis
Organizations
- RAND Corporation