A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User's Manual

Abstract

RAND's Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD) was built to support high-level discussion and decision making in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) by providing summary portfolio-style characterizations of alternative investment options. These characterizations may involve projected capabilities in different missions, such as defense of the homeland from long-range missile attacks; the balance of emphasis across missions; the managing of risks; and economic considerations such as relative cost-effectiveness. The portfolio-style depiction attempts to provide a holistic, top-level view across all of these considerations and is intended to facilitate discussion of program tradeoffs and adjustments. Equally important, PAT-MD and a companion tool, RAND's Capabilities Analysis Model for Missile Defense (CAMMD), make it possible to "zoom" to higher levels of detail to understand the basis of high-level characterizations and how they would change if assumptions or priorities were changed. Chapter 2 introduces the principal concepts and terms in PAT-MD and presents a schematic overview. Chapters 3 and 4 describe PAT-MD's input and outputs in user-manual detail. Chapter 5 discusses selected methodological issues, especially aggregation methods, in more detail, along with methods for marginal and chunky marginal analysis. Chapter 6 presents some concluding observations, including suggestions and cautions for users and some challenges for future work. Appendix A summarizes features of PAT-MD and compares them with those of DynaRank (Hillestad and Davis, 1998). Appendix B shows how to develop a portfolio view from the PAT-MD template. Users may wish to use the template and Appendix B early, especially if they prefer to learn by doing.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA440450

Entities

People

  • Paul Dreyer
  • Paul K. Davis

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Basic Programming Language
  • Boost Phase
  • Color Coding
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Science
  • Cost Effectiveness
  • Defense Systems
  • Department Of Defense
  • Homeland Defense
  • Homeland Security
  • Kill Vehicles
  • Military Organizations
  • National Security
  • Radar
  • Spreadsheet Software

Readers

  • Business Analytics
  • Missile Defense Systems.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.