China/Taiwan: A Quick Takedown
Abstract
Recent PRC actions and rhetoric in response to Taiwan's continuing efforts to gain international legitimacy have prompted a significant increase in cross-Strait tensions. Those tensions are now so serious that I believe Beijing authorities may intend to attempt a preemptive military takedown and forced unification with Taiwan before Taiwan's presidential election campaign next spring That election campaign inevitably would bring further calls for independence, and the PRC's patience on this issue may now be exhausted. Furthermore, despite longstanding assumptions that Taiwan could hold out against an attack for some time, the PRC may have reason to believe it could pull off a quick coup. If that is the case, unless we are prepared to intervene immediately we might be faced with a fait accompli Based on past experience, however, there may be no plan for an immediate intervention, and any U.S. decision on whether to intervene would be formulated in an ad hoc manner based primarily on the popular and Congressional mood of the day rather than on long-term U S interests.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1996
- Accession Number
- ADA441452
Entities
People
- John R. Nay
Organizations
- National War College