Transforming Intelligence: Improving Inference Through Advanced Simulations. Better Prediction Through Better Inquiry
Abstract
Recent enhancements in modeling and simulation techniques offer significant improvements for intelligence analysts to increase their inference and prediction skills. Architectural and programming improvements in techniques known as agent-based models offer analysts opportunities to increase their capabilities to deal with complex masses of evidence. These models demonstrate how the process of discovery may be improved through empowering information observations that compose evidence to interact with each other and with the analyst to drive toward more meaningful lines of inquiry - to increase the likelihood of asking more important questions in situations traditionally thought of as complex and opaque. Biologically inspired models of self-organization motivate the construction of forms of agent-based models that encourage analysts to interact more directly with the evidence they observe and to improve inference and inquiry, as well as prediction.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA441749
Entities
People
- Carl W. Hunt
Organizations
- National War College