Iraq: Preemption or Paralysis
Abstract
The United States must preemptively strike the Iraqi regime before the regime obtains enough Weapons of Mass Destruction, particularly nuclear weapons, to threaten U.S. security or to deter U.S. actions. Fundamental and vital U.S. national security interests, national safety and security, and undeterred access and influence in the Middle East demand a nuclear-free Iraq. An irrational Iraqi dictator armed with nuclear weapons not only could, but likely would, use these weapons against the United States to achieve his goals. The United States cannot live under the threat of massive destruction of its population by a madman. In addition, U.S. security is intimately tied to global economic security, which is threatened by Iraqi expansionist desires. An Iraq armed with nuclear weapons would be difficult and extremely costly to stop from re-occupying Kuwait and seizing vast oil reserves. In fact, if Iraq obtained enough nuclear weapons, potentially all U.S. intervention in the Middle East could be prevented or deterred by the threat of massive destruction inside the United States. Therefore, the U.S. must take action to prevent Iraq from obtaining nuclear weapons and pursue an end-state of a nuclear-free, moderate Iraqi regime. Since diplomatic actions and the use of limited force have not stopped Iraq from its quest for nuclear weapons, the United States must initiate a preemptive strike against the Iraqi regime before it is too late and too costly. The case for this action is made in two main sections: Situation and Case for Preemption. Describing the situation begins by articulating U.S. national interests along with some assumptions about the Iraqi regime. Next, the Statecraft-Tools-Relationship (STR) model is described and applied to Iraq. The Iraqi threat is then detailed, followed by a discussion of the heretofore failure to adequately counter this threat. The Case for Preemption section discusses deterrence and preemption and when the use of U.S. force must occur.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA442434
Entities
People
- Jeffrey S. Johnson
Organizations
- National War College