Decision Superiority: Transforming National Security Decision-Making

Abstract

The world's most technologically advanced and capable nation has a dark secret. Despite the ultra-precise nature of the United States' weapons of war, decisions about when and how to use this lethal instrument of power are often the result of undocumented processes which emerge spontaneously, are mostly personality driven, and evolve in a near data-free environment. Despite the fact that an increasing amount of information is available, decisions to use force are often made without a process that relates quantitative and qualitative factors. Presidents have made serious decisions throughout history without innovative processes to assist them, but today's security environment is increasingly complex, dangerous, and quick moving. Today's decisions are executed quickly, in near-real-time, and impact at multiple levels. Senior decision-makers must make very costly decisions without a framework to assist them in understanding the full context and level of risk at that particular point in time. The interagency process needs to push toward Decision Superiority, a decision environment that ensures any US president will be able to quickly assess alternative courses of action in an appropriate context and relate them to a strategic vision. This paper argues for a transformation in national security decision-making that would leverage existing decision support methodologies to support complex decision-making about the use of force. This thesis applies broadly to all decisions about the use of force, but is especially important concerning President Bush's current responsibility to make decisions about employing nuclear weapons in the context of growing chemical, biological and nuclear threats to the US.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2002
Accession Number
ADA442501

Entities

People

  • Lisa Disbrow

Organizations

  • National War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Biological Weapons
  • Cold War
  • Computers
  • Decision Support Systems
  • Employment
  • Expert Systems
  • Governments
  • International Law
  • National Governments
  • National Security
  • Nuclear Bombs
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Operations Research
  • Security
  • State Governments
  • Weapons
  • Weapons Of Mass Destruction

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design