North Korea's Perennial Diet of Carrots and Sticks
Abstract
The "new direction" promised at the end of the Clinton Administration never came. During the first high-level contact between the Bush Administration and the isolated North Korean government in early October 2002, the DPRK acknowledged it had clandestinely developed facilities to enrich uranium, saying it was no longer bound by the terms of a 1994 accord that froze its old plutonium-based program. In one bold stroke, North Korea's reclusive leader, Kim Jong Il, had given the United States an opportunity to isolate the DPRK from its traditional allies, China and Russia. The Bush Administration could now give North Korea a clear choice: dismantle all of its nuclear facilities in return for continued engagement or face a series of escalating economic and military sanctions. For this all-too-familiar carrot and stick strategy to work, however, China and Russia must be convinced to threaten to cut off critical fuel exports to North Korea, something they have been unwilling to do in the past. The risk is that China, Russia or both could overtly or covertly undermine any sanctions regime, forcing the United States to pursue unilateral military options that might split the U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance or spiral into a devastating war. The "wild card" is the current Iraq crisis. If the United States succeeds in toppling the Iraqi regime and if North Korea does not develop a significant nuclear deterrent in the interim, the U.S. negotiating position with its allies and adversaries could be strengthened. Regime change in North Korea might then become an explicit goal of U.S. policy. In any event, a preemptive military strike on North Korean facilities would effectively entail a strategy aimed at toppling the Kim Jong Il regime. It should be recommended only as a last resort and only if it is certain that China and Russia will sit on the sidelines.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 28, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA442521
Entities
People
- Stephen B. Wickman
Organizations
- National War College