Improving 30-Day Foreacsts of Great Lake Ice Cover: Phase III 30-Day Spatial Forecasts

Abstract

While many previous studies have highlighted important ice-atmosphere relationships in the Great Lakes, there remains a disconnect between the science and an objective 30-day forecast. In particular, most previous studies focused on temporally consistent (e.g. winter ice cover and winter mean temperatures) analyses, which are not applicable for forecasting. Additionally, most studies demonstrated only basin-scale linkages (i.e. the Great Lakes a single entity), but forecasters need information on scales specific to individual lakes or ports. Thus, the major challenges facing development of an objective statistical 30-day ice forecast are related to a lack of studies concerning how sub-basin scale ice cover variations are associated with atmospheric and ice conditions in preceding months.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 15, 2006
Accession Number
ADA444213

Entities

People

  • Meg Austin

Organizations

  • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Climatology
  • Correlation Analysis
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Earth Sciences
  • Environment
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • Great Lakes
  • Habitats
  • Ice
  • Lake Erie
  • Lake Ontario
  • Lake Superior
  • Lakes
  • Statistics

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers