It's the People, Stupid: The Role of Personality and Situational Variable in Predicting Decisionmaker Behavior
Abstract
Predicting a leader's actions must take the Subject's personality into consideraton in addition to relevant situational variables. This paper presents a methodology for prediction that enables the analyst to reason through a prediction of a Subject's decision making. to identity assumptions and determinant variables, and to quantify each variable's relative contribution to the prediction, producing a graphical representation of the analysis with explicit levels of uncertainty. The analyst builds Bayesian networks that integrate situational information with the Subject's personality and culture to provide a probabilistic prediction of the hypothesized actions a Subject might choose. The model development process allows the analyst to systematically develop hypotheses regarding potential actions, determine the Subject's most likely strategic objectives, identify relevant situational variables, estimate probabilistic relationships between variables, and assess the Subject's standing on several personality variables. The analysis forecasts probabilities of hypothesized actions, which may then be subjected to several "what-if" and sensitivity analyses. The methodology has been applied to over a dozen historical and prospective situations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 04, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA444343
Entities
People
- Dennis. M. Buede
- Paul J. Sticha
- Richard L. Rees
Organizations
- Human Resources Research Organization