Al Qaeda: Profile and Threat Assessment
Abstract
There is no consensus among experts in and outside the U.S. Government about the magnitude of the threat to U.S. national interests posed by the Al Qaeda organization. Experts agree that Al Qaeda and its sympathizers intend to conduct major attacks in the United States, against U.S. interests abroad, and against Western countries. But many believe that the Al Qaeda organization and its leadership are no longer as relevant to assessing the global Islamic terrorist threat as they were on September 11, 2001. Some believe U.S. and allied counter efforts have weakened Al Qaeda's central leadership structure and capabilities to the point where Al Qaeda serves more as inspiration than as an actual planning and execution hub. According to this view, the threat from Al Qaeda has been replaced by a threat from a number of loosely affiliated cells and groups that subscribe to Al Qaeda's ideology, but have little, if any, contact with remaining Al Qaeda leaders. Those who take this view believe that catastrophic attacks similar to those on 9/11 are unlikely because terrorist operations on that scale require a high degree of coordination. An alternate view is that the remaining Al Qaeda leadership remains in contact with, and possibly even in control of, numerous Islamic militant cells and groups that continue to commit acts of terrorism, such as the July 7, 2005 bombings of the London transit system. According to those who subscribe to this view, Al Qaeda has not been weakened to the degree that some Administration officials assert, and the global effort against Islamic terrorism would benefit significantly from finding and capturing Osama bin Laden and his top associate, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Subscribers to this view believe that a coordinated attack on the scale of 9/11 should not be ruled out because the remaining Al Qaeda structure is sufficiently well-organized to conduct an effort of that magnitude. This paper focuses on the Al Qaeda organization and its major affiliates.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 17, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA444819
Entities
People
- Kenneth Katzman
Organizations
- Library of Congress