Reducing Uncertainty in Effects-Based Operations

Abstract

Known as the fog of war, uncertainty has been prevalent in the conduct of military operations throughout human history. Intelligence collection efforts are tasked to reduce this uncertainty through the collection of information. Utilizing Shannon's entropy as a measure of the expected information gain due to an intelligence collection effort, a methodology is developed to prioritize and allocate intelligence assets in an efficient manner. Incorporated in this methodology are target priority and the requirement to reassess dynamic targets. The application area for the methodology is Effects-Based Operations. A generalized state model is developed to conduct adversary system-of-systems analysis. This model forms the basis for the entropy calculations and the resultant integer program to maximize the information gain.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2006
Accession Number
ADA446177

Entities

People

  • Wilburn B. Mclamb

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Communications Intelligence
  • Computational Science
  • Electronic Intelligence
  • Fuzzy Sets
  • Human Intelligence
  • Imagery Intelligence
  • Information Operations
  • Intelligence Collection
  • Mathematical Models
  • Military Operations
  • National Security
  • Operations Research
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Reasoning
  • United States Government

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Joint Military Operations and Doctrine.