It's the People, Stupid: The Role of Personality and Situational Variables in Predicting Decisionmaker Behavior

Abstract

"Goal to predict foreign leaders decisions, explicitly considering uncertainty in the prediction." Recognition that these decisions are influenced by many factors. Triggering events (e.g., provocations, opportunities). Contextual variables (e.g., economy, military strength, popular support). Leader objectives (e.g., maintain power, leave a legacy). Leader personality (e.g., need for power, acceptance of risk, trust). Cultural context (e.g., power distance, future orientation). Need for methodology to neutralize analytic biases,errors, confirmation biases, hindsight, personalization. Capture an auditable history of evolving evidence and analyses, e.g., triggering the attention of the analyst. Desire for analysis context that neutralizes social biases; senior expert, party line, biggest fistful of cables, best orator. Surface assumptions, evidence and logic underlying predictions.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 23, 2005
Accession Number
ADA447895

Entities

People

  • Dennis. M. Buede
  • Paul J. Sticha
  • Richard L. Rees

Organizations

  • Human Resources Research Organization

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Behavior And Behavior Mechanisms
  • Computer Programs
  • Human Behavior
  • Human Resources
  • Information Operations
  • Military Operations
  • Models
  • Operations Research
  • Personality
  • Probability
  • Psychology
  • Recognition
  • Revolutions
  • United States Military Academy
  • Violence

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.