Operational Polar Ice Forecasting
Abstract
The Arctic is one of the most hostile operational environments in the world. Free drifting icebergs, shifting boundaries of pack ice, 24-hour darkness, sub-zero temperatures, icing on ship's equipment and superstructures and a lack of dependable logistical support can make Arctic operations extremely dangerous for ships, aircraft and submarines. Given these harsh operating conditions, real-time information and accurate forecasts can mean the difference between missing success and major equipment damage. Despite the difficulty of operations in this environment, numerous vessels transit the Arctic regularly and the volume of traffic is likely to increase in the near future because of diminishing ice cover. Scientists have conducted extensive research in the Arctic for the past several decades, but more recently, oil and gas interests have spurred increased Arctic exploration. Recently, a team of over 300 scientists confirmed unprecedented changes occurring north of the Arctic Circle. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) released in November 2004 describes these changes, including a 3 per cent per decade northerly retreat of the ice edge or extent at the end of the summer season (Figure 1).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA448202
Entities
People
- Pamela S. Posey
- Ruth H. Preller
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory