Individualized Next-Generation Biomathematical Modeling of Fatigue and Performance
Abstract
Biomathematical models of fatigue and performance provide a useful methodology for the prediction of fatigue resulting from sleep loss and circadian disruption in Air Force operations. However, currently available models do not have the capability to make predictions for individual subjects, which makes them inaccurate when not applied to large groups. This project employed a cutting-edge technique called Bayesian forecasting to develop a novel biomathematical performance model to predict responses to sleep loss and circadian displacement for individual subjects. Accomplishments during the period of work covered in this report included the following: 1) mathematical derivations and parameter estimations for the implementation of the Bayesian forecasting technique in the seminal two-process model of sleep regulation and in the chronic modulating process model; 2) model validation in accordance with the Box iterative scheme of model development; and 3) construction of a biomathematical model combining the two-process model of sleep regulation with the chronic modulating process model for the effects of chronic sleep restriction. The project has been transferred and is currently being continued at Washington State University.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 10, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA450959
Entities
People
- Hans P. Van Dongen