Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems

Abstract

This report is one of a series from a RAND *Project AIR FORCE* project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report examines cost estimating risk analysis methods and recommends a policy prescription. The project was conducted within the RAND *Project AIR FORCE* Resource Management Program. The research is sponsored by the Principal Deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition), Lt Gen John D.W. Corley. The project technical monitor is Jay Jordan, Technical Director of the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. This report should interest government cost analysts, the military acquisition communities, and those concerned with current and future acquisition policies.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2006
Accession Number
ADA451312

Entities

People

  • Bernard Fox
  • Carolyn Wong
  • Felicia Wu
  • Jerry M. Sollinger
  • John C. Graser
  • Lionel A. Galway
  • Mark V. Arena
  • Obaid Younossi

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Airframes
  • Business Administration
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Engineers
  • Health Services
  • Information Science
  • Jet Propulsion
  • Knowledge Management
  • Management Personnel
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Organizational Structure
  • Psychology
  • Risk Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Aerospace logistics and air mobility.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis