New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

Abstract

At the request of the Office of Naval Research (ONR), we provided the U.S. Navy two tools to help evaluate the process that novice acquisition officers use to integrate risk-management strategies with the federal military acquisition process. The Human Performance Knowledge Mapping Tool (HPKMT) was designed to evaluate the ability of subjects to depict the relationships among the key phases in the acquisition process and subject understanding of risk management. The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used to arrive at a procurement decision. When we evaluated the HPKMT knowledge maps of 17 subjects against expert maps developed by their instructors, we found that subject understanding of incorporating risk management in the acquisition process trended higher, but did not improve significantly. Sequential analysis of data from the DAT allowed us to isolate distinct risk-management strategies, as well as strategies that overly focused on (or ignored) aspects of risk management. The use of a referent to determine the conceptual relationships and strategic acquisition skills necessary to be a skilled acquisition officer are discussed as extensions of this work.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2004
Accession Number
ADA451743

Entities

People

  • Allen Munro
  • Eva L. Baker
  • Gale Stuart
  • Girlie C. De La Cruz
  • Gregory K. Chung
  • Quentin A. Pizzini
  • Terry P. Vendlinski
  • William L. Bewley

Organizations

  • University of California, Los Angeles

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Distance Learning
  • Education
  • Information Science
  • Instructions
  • Military Acquisition
  • Motor Skills
  • Pilot Studies
  • Procurement
  • Schools
  • Sequential Analysis
  • Standards
  • Statistics
  • Students
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Training

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.