Probabilistic Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability in Biological Models: Application to a Toxicokinetic Model

Abstract

Population variability and uncertainty are important features of biological systems that must be considered when developing mathematical models for these systems. In this paper we present probability-based parameter estimation methods that account for such variability and uncertainty. Theoretical results that establish well-posedness and stability for these methods are discussed. A probabilistic parameter estimation technique is then applied to a toxicokinetic model for trichloroethylene using several types of simulated data. Comparison with results obtained using a standard, deterministic parameter estimation method suggests that the probabilistic methods are better able to capture population variability and uncertainty in model parameters. Key words: Parameter estimation, biological modeling, population variability, model uncertainty, toxicokinetics, trichloroethylene

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 13, 2002
Accession Number
ADA453196

Entities

People

  • H. Thomas Banks
  • Laura K. Potter

Organizations

  • North Carolina State University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Adipose Tissue
  • Blood Flow
  • Cells
  • Computational Science
  • Differential Equations
  • Distribution Functions
  • Equations
  • Experimental Data
  • Fat Cells
  • Inverse Problems
  • Mathematical Models
  • Measurement
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Normal Distribution
  • Partial Differential Equations
  • Probability Distribution Functions
  • Probability Distributions

Fields of Study

  • Biology
  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Toxicology/Environmental Toxicology