A Probabilistic Approach for Mine Burial Prediction

Abstract

Predicting the degree of burial of mines in soft sediments is one of the main concerns of Naval Mine CounterMeasures (MCM) operations This is a difficult problem to solve due to uncertainties and variability of the sediment parameters(i.e. density and shear strength) and of the mine state at contact with the seafloor (i.e. vertical and horizontal velocity, angular rotation rate and pitch angle at the mudline). A stochastic approach is proposed in this paper to better incoporate the dynamic nature of free-falling cylindrical mines in the modeling of impact burial. The orientation, trajectory and velocity of cylindrical mines, after about 4 meters free-fall in the water column, are very strongly influenced by boundary layer effects causing quite chaotic behavior. The model's convolution of the uncertainty through its nonlinearity is addressed by employing Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a risk analysis based on the probability of encountering an undetectable mine is performed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2004
Accession Number
ADA453874

Entities

People

  • Andrei Abelev
  • Costin Barbu
  • Michael Richardson
  • Nathaniel Plant
  • Philip Valent

Organizations

  • Tulane University of Louisiana

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Bearing Strength
  • Boundary Layer
  • Data Science
  • Information Science
  • Layers
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Physical Properties
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Risk
  • Seabed
  • Sediments
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Sampling
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Acoustical Oceanography.
  • Aerodynamics/Aeronautics.
  • Sensor Fusion and Tracking Systems.