Determining the Number of Reenlistments Necessary to Satisfy Future Force Requirements
Abstract
The Manpower and Reserve Affairs Department (M&RA) of Headquarters Marine Corps currently uses two models to assist in determining the optimal number of reenlistments each Military Occupational Specialty (MOS) should have each year. One is called the First Term Alignment Plan (FTAP) and the other is called the Subsequent Term Alignment Plan (STAP). As their titles suggest, the FTAP calculates reenlistment numbers for first-term Marines while the STAP performs the calculations for all other Marines. Not only were these models built at different times and by different organizations, they also use different methodologies. M&RA requested that these models be examined in an effort to combine the functionality of each into a single coherent model. This thesis builds a model that does just that. The fundamental concept of the model involves taking the current inventory of Marines who are not entering an end-of-contract year (by MOS and grade) and applying transition rates to each of them to determine how many are in what MOS and grade combination at the end of the upcoming year. This forecasted inventory is then subtracted from a desired force structure known as the Grade Adjusted Recapitulation. The resulting vector represents the necessary number of reenlistments for each MOS and grade. Manpower planners can use the results of this model to establish the number of boat spaces for each of the first-term MOSs as well as recommended reenlistment goals for the subsequent-term MOSs. Once the optimal number of reenlistments is determined, manpower planners can use this information to allocate the Selective Reenlistment Bonus budget and to decide where to allow MOS lateral transfers.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA457282
Entities
People
- Jonathan D. Raymond
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School