Environmental Support to Space Launch
Abstract
We investigated environmental impacts to space launch at the Eastern and Western Ranges. In order to develop a truly responsive launch capability significant research needs to be conducted in specification and prediction of the atmosphere below 50,000 ft. Present research shows that weather is the leading cause of cancelled space launches (51% at Eastern Range and 58% at Western Range). The ability to forecast weather in support of current requirements was examined. Almost four years (2000 - 2004) of metric data was obtained from the Air Force Space Command (AFSPC). Metrics include weather warnings, weather advisories (watches) and forecasts of Launch Commit Criteria (LCC). The criteria were chosen based on the meteorological conditions found in the LCC. Results demonstrate current shortfalls in forecasting across several key environmental parameters which include lightning, convective and non-convective winds, precipitation and temperature. Both ranges show a large number of false alarms (forecasted but did not verify) for some of the environmental parameters. Even more significant are the low success scores or the probability of issued warnings meeting the desired lead time based on LCC. Ongoing research is focused on improvements in weather prediction which will lead to significant increases in operational responsiveness and decreased cost. Further research is required to improve weather forecasting so that responsive space launch will be realized.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 31, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA459835
Entities
People
- Mike Kapel
- Sheryl F. Thorp
Organizations
- Boston College