Ukraine's Relations with Russia: Competition or Cooperation?
Abstract
Independent since 1991, Ukraine continues to struggle in its efforts to improve its political stability and economic strength. Because of Ukraine's geographic proximity to and intertwined history with Russia, Ukrainian leaders measure their actions against the domestic and foreign interests of Russia. Ukrainian policies, especially those that would expose Ukraine to Western influences and those independent of Russia's approval, could cause distrust and suspicion in Moscow. Because Ukraine is likely to make political decisions in the future that may cross Russian interests, the author addresses the following question: Should Ukraine adopt a competitive or cooperative policy with Russia, or some combination of both, to fulfill its national security goals? The thesis presents an analytical framework that assesses the feasibility and rationality of possible Ukrainian decisions on two volatile issues: the energy supply imbalance and border demarcation. It incorporates the domestic influences in Ukraine and Russia as well as dominant international factors in its analysis, seeking to identify the internal biases of the decision makers and how those biases affect the strength and security of an independent Ukraine. The thesis also addresses several other questions: What does Ukraine need to change to improve its political and economic strength and are these changes institutional or constitutional in nature? Do any of the necessary changes violate the official policy interests or domestic well-being of Russia? Could economic and political differences between the two nations escalate to undesired military consequences? What are the Western interests in Ukraine and how can the West best assuage Russian concerns about Ukrainian gains in political, economic, and military strength? The thesis concludes by recommending steps that Ukraine and the United States could take to ensure Ukrainian sovereignty in the future.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA460081
Entities
People
- Mace J. Oswald
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School