Risk-Informed Resource Allocation at the Department of Homeland Security

Abstract

Since the formation of DHS in 2003, Congress and DHS have made continuing progress in incorporating risk analysis into decision making about homeland security policy and programs. For example, shortly after September 11, 2001, decisions about how to make grants to protect localities from terrorism were dominated by the use of crude indicators, such as population, which was intended to serve as a surrogate measure of the consequences of terrorist events. This approach failed to differentiate scenarios that were more likely because of terrorists' capabilities and intentions or because targets were more vulnerable to attack. More recently, Secretary Michael Chertoff has called on DHS to adopt risk-based decision making. The principle of using risk-based decision making has now been adopted across DHS and methods of risk analysis are becoming established in DHS. Terrorism risk is a function of three factors: a credible threat of attack on a vulnerable target that would result in unwanted consequences. Risk only exists if terrorists want to launch an attack, if they have the capability to do so successfully in a way that avoids security and compromises the target, and if the attack results in casualties, economic loss, or another form of unwanted consequence. Models to estimate terrorism risks and the outcomes of terrorist attacks under various scenarios have been developed at DHS Centers of Excellence, independent think tanks, other research organizations, national laboratories, and the Department of Defense. DHS itself has also developed models and sponsored external research, including a RAND study on using risk analysis for intelligence analysis sponsored by the Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center (HITRAC). Risk management and the tools to support it are being institutionalized into the DHS decision-making process.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 2007
Accession Number
ADA462153

Entities

People

  • Henry H. Willis

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Congress
  • Department Of Homeland Security
  • Governments
  • Health Care
  • Homeland Security
  • Law
  • Marine Transportation
  • National Governments
  • National Security
  • Natural Disasters
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Management
  • Security
  • Transportation
  • United States
  • Urban Areas

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Strategic Security Studies