U.S. Conventional Forces and Nuclear Deterence: A China Case Study
Abstract
Congress and the Department of Defense (DoD) are engaged in an extended discourse over the future direction of U.S. defense strategy and military force structure. In the past, these discussions have focused almost exclusively on questions related to U.S. conventional military forces, with discussions about nuclear weapons held in separate fora. However, the 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) examined both nuclear and conventional forces, a first in the QDR's history. This indicates that analysts both inside and outside government are beginning to review and assess the potential deterrent and operational relationship between conventional and nuclear weapons. It appears that considerable pressure is building on DoD leaders to make strategy and force structure decisions with cost-effectiveness in mind. A key question for contemporary defense planners is what proportion of U.S. military capabilities should be focused on traditional military challenges and what proportion should be focused on non-traditional challenges, such as "irregular, disruptive and catastrophic" threats? To effectively analyze the desired size and characteristics of tomorrow's military, some argue that we must take a hard look at feasible, real-world contingencies. A possible conflict with China attracts considerable attention from defense planners because it is a regional competitor today and could over time grow to be a "near-peer" competitor. Analysts can also easily identify flashpoints where the two nations might meet and feel compelled to defend national interests. The analysis that follows seeks to explore the possible role that U.S. nuclear and conventional forces might play in four stages of potential conflicts: deterrence, prior to the start of the conflict; crisis stability in the early stages of the conflict; warfighting during the height of the conflict; and war termination, through either a negotiated settlement or a battlefield victory.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 11, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA462335
Entities
People
- Amy F. Woolf
- Christopher Bolkcom
- Shirley Kan
Organizations
- Library of Congress