China, Russia and the Balance of Power in Central Asia. Strategic Forum, Number 223, November 2006
Abstract
Russia and China increasingly seek to offset U.S. influence in Central Asia through enhanced cooperation conducted under the banner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). While its impact is often exaggerated, the SCO does offer certain benefits to the states of the region, as well as to Moscow and Beijing, that the United States can ill afford to ignore. The United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies play a critical role in Central Asia through their stabilizing presence in Afghanistan, something that neither Russia nor China can match. Central Asia's geostrategic qualities keep America strongly interested in retaining access and building cooperative, stable relations with regional states. Russia and China oppose U.S. democracy promotion as na ve or subversive (or both). Yet neither has articulated a vision for systemic change and long-term stability in the region. Russia's influence is a matter of its imperial past, economic interdependence, and trading routes. Russia depends on Central Asian energy resources and labor, but its control over both gives it leverage over the region. China's influence has been growing due to expanding trade, acquisition of energy resources, and overall rise as a major power. China and Russia will remain significant actors in Central Asia, and advancing U.S. interests in this region will become more complicated if Russia and China are ignored. Dialogue and limited cooperation with both countries in areas of mutual interest should be important elements of a successful U.S. strategy for the region.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA462753
Entities
People
- Eugene B. Rumer
Organizations
- National Defense University