Comparison of Intent-to-Leave with Actual Turnover within the FAA

Abstract

Human capital planning in the federal sector relies upon past losses to estimate future turnover. Since the historical loss rate is a lagging indicator, an alternative estimate of future turnover might be derived from information about employee intent-to-leave. However, results from studies of the relationship between intent-to-leave and actual behavior have been mixed. Given the conflicting research findings, the authors investigated the correspondence between intent-to-leave and actual aggregate turnover rates in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Data describing intent-to-leave in the next 12 months were obtained from Employee Attitude Surveys of employees in the last quarters of fiscal years 1997 (N=25,004), 2000 (N=24,469), and 2003 (N=22,720). Actual turnover rates for the following fiscal years (FY1998, 2001, 2004) were calculated from data extracted from the Agency's official system of personnel records. The proportions of employees indicating intent-to-leave on each survey were compared with actual turnover using a Z-test of proportions. Results showed that intent-to-leave expressed in each survey year significantly overestimated actual turnover in the year following the survey (1997 versus 1998, Z = 37.77, p < .001; 2000 versus 2001, Z = 13.74, p < .001; and 2003 versus 2004, Z = 3.46, p < .001). When analyzed by gender, intent-to-leave significantly overestimated actual turnover for both men and women. Analysis by minority status indicated that intent-to-leave overestimated actual turnover for minorities and nonminorities for the 1997/1998 and 2000/2001 but not for the 2003/2004 comparisons. While overall intent-to-leave expressed in surveys of employees does not appear to be of much use in predicting future turnover for the FAA, other variables (i.e., reasons for that intent, employee engagement, or organizational commitment) might prove beneficial in the agency's human capital planning. Future research should focus on those variables.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2006
Accession Number
ADA463866

Entities

People

  • Carolyn S. Dollar
  • Dana L. Broach

Organizations

  • Federal Aviation Administration

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aerospace Medicine
  • Air Traffic Controllers
  • Applied Psychology
  • Employment
  • Governments
  • Homeland Security
  • Human Resources
  • Indicators
  • Information Exchange
  • Information Systems
  • Job Satisfaction
  • Management Information Systems
  • Management Personnel
  • Minority Groups
  • Personnel Management
  • Psychology
  • United States Government

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