Some Implications of Increasing U.S. Forces in Iraq
Abstract
The Administration is currently planning (and has begun to execute) an increase in U.S. ground forces in Iraq. That plan calls for increasing the number of U.S. combat brigades in-theater by 5 above the December 2006 level of 15, peaking at 20 combat brigades deployed. As of now, the Administration has not specified how long it plans to sustain such an increase. This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis considers the effects of increasing U.S. ground forces in Iraq. In particular, it analyzes the effects on operational tempo and availability of units to respond to other contingencies. To analyze those effects and compare them with the alternatives for employing U.S. forces incorporated in the House and Senate versions of the supplemental appropriation for fiscal year 2007, CBO constructed five deployment scenarios: Scenario 1: U.S. force levels return to and are then maintained indefinitely at 15 combat brigades in-theater (i.e., no increase in forces beyond what has already been executed); Scenario 2: A 4-month increase that builds up to 20 combat brigades in-theater by May 2007 and sustains that increase until August 2007; Scenario 3: A 12-month increase that builds up to 20 combat brigades in-theater by May 2007 and sustains that increase until April 2008; Scenario 4: A 24-month increase that builds up to 20 combat brigades in-theater by May 2007 and sustains that increase until April 2009; and Scenario 5: A withdrawal from Iraq that steadily reduces the number of combat brigades in-theater from current levels until all U.S. combat brigades have departed by June 2008. This analysis updates CBO's previous work on this topic, "An Analysis of the U.S. Military's Ability to Sustain an Occupation in Iraq" (Sep 2003) and "An Analysis of the U.S. Military's Ability to Sustain an Occupation in Iraq: An Update" (Oct 2005), using the same measures of stress on the force (rotation ratios and number of brigades immediately available to respond to other contingencies).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA466597
Entities
People
- Adam Talaber
Organizations
- Congressional Budget Office