Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory and Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology

Abstract

This thesis utilizes game theory within a framework for updating optimal decisions based on new information as it becomes available. Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker or a random component nature. Utility theory is applied to account for the different risk preferences of the decision makers. Furthermore, response surface methodology is used to explore good risk strategies for the decision maker to approach each situation with. The techniques are applied to a combat scenario, a football game, and a terrorist resource allocation problem, providing a decision maker with the best possible strategy given the information available to him. The results are intuitive and exemplify the benefits of using the methods.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2007
Accession Number
ADA466605

Entities

People

  • Jeremy D. Jordan

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Cooperative Games
  • Department Of Homeland Security
  • Game Theory
  • Governments
  • Linear Programming
  • Military Operations
  • Non-Cooperative Games
  • Operations Research
  • Probability Distributions
  • Simplex Method
  • Three Dimensional
  • United States
  • Urban Areas
  • War Games
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Strategic Security Studies